General Commentary,Opinion and news concerning Australia. Australian politics, government, foreign policy and culture.
Friday, June 10, 2011
Be Prepared For A Chinese Invasion!
Chinese Tourism Booming
According to a Tourism Research Australia Report released Thursday, June 8, China is Australia's fastest growing inbound tourism market, currently ranked fourth behind New Zealand, Britain and the United States.
Whilst, numerically, the Chinese ranked fourth, in terms of dollars spent and average days stayed Chinese visitors ranked number one
In 2010, Chinese visitors rose 22 percent from the previous year to 454,000 and spent a whopping $3.3 billion.
With the Chinese economy growing at a rate of up to 10% per annum a whole new, cashed up, middle class has emerged that is young, adventurous and relatively close by.
Combined with the increasing economic and cultural links between the two countries Australia will obviously become a preferred holiday option and travel here will grow dramatically in the foreseeable future.
To promote this Tourism Australia has said it is planning to dramatically increase its marketing activity in China and expects to open 11 new offices on the mainland by 2014.
Whilst Chinese tourism will bring considerable additional revenue to Australia it is also extremely important in terms of increasing positive diplomatic relations between the two countries.
And, just as importantly, it exposes the up and coming future leaders of China to a hopefully a positive role model in terms of democratic freedoms and human rights.
This will undoubtedly assist China's "peaceful rising" in it becoming a superpower on the world stage.
So it's time to learn to say hello in Chinese "Ni Hao" China!
Tuesday, June 7, 2011
Should We Be In Afghanistan?
How Much Is Too Much To Pay?
With the report of the twenty seventh death of an Australian Digger in Afghanistan, coming as it does a day after two other Diggers were returned to Australia, the question on every Australian's lips just now is
"Should we be there...?"
Is the deaths of Australians justified in this theatre of operations and, if it is, what level of deaths is acceptable?
Well let me start by saying that my thoughts are with the families of all our Heroes who have lost their lives or have been wounded in Afghanistan. As an Australian I am enormously proud of all our military men and women.
Regrettable as the loss of life is, in any circumstances, that loss can be justified if it achieves a greater good. I do not think anyone would argue with that hypothesis and I am sure the mourned men would feel the same.
Put simply, one death to save 100 must be seen by a majority of people as justifiable, 100 deaths to save 1 must be questionable no matter what brand of philosophy you adhere to.
Combat Deaths incurred to fight International Terrorism with it's concomitant effects on average people throughout the world is justifiable. I do not believe any but a very few would argue otherwise. The effects of terrorism are brutal, inhumane, wide reaching and destabilising on many planes.
Combat deaths to "lessen" International Terrorism and it's effects falls into the a questionable zone. A zone where we need to make judgements.
What success are we having? How do we assess and quantify that success? And, very importantly what number of deaths are acceptable? These are questions decision makers, be they military or a national government, must wrestle with on a day to day basis.
An Army general will assess a situation by weighing up the worth of an objective against possible casualties likely to be incurred to achieve that objective. Casualties are expected but at what level?
Military doctrine has pointers to what are acceptable casualty ratios to achieve an objective. To take a position with 10% casualties could well be acceptable with 99% surely not.
The American casualty ratios in it's island hop in the Pacific in WW2 were grossly high by any standards but drew no public outcry, the objective was clear and simple; defeat the Japanese at whatever cost. Casualty ratios in Vietnam on the other hand were acceptable militarily but drew incredible criticism and public outcry because the objective was not clear and simple.
What I am trying to emphasise here is the "worth" of an objective and whether it can be acceptably attained. It is from this position that we can attempt perhaps to answer the question:
"Should we be in Afghanistan and losing Australian sons?"
Now I would posit most Australian's would say that Australia's objective in Afghanistan was to root out International Terrorism or at the very least damage it considerably from it's cradle with a bi-product of bringing Osama Bin Laden to justice.
But was that and is that the only objective for our being in Afghanistan? Because,if it is not the only objective, then the process necessary to arrive at an answer changes significantly.
Let me try to expand this and in doing so make my point understandable.
Lets talk casualty levels in the following arbitrary terms.
If we were in Afghanistan to root out International Terrorism then I would say we would be accepting of high casualty rates. If we believed we were in Afghanistan to "Lessen" International Terrorism then our acceptance of casualty rates would decrease, the worth of the objective has diminished. If we believed that we were in Afghanistan with no real chance of either we would not be accepting of any casualties at all.
However our involvement in Afghanistan has another dimension that needs factoring in and that is our willingness to support an ally.
When this factor is brought into consideration the answer to our question, as it concerns acceptable casualty rates, must change because our objective in being there has changed.
Therefore, we must view the question from two aspects. Firstly do we believe we are achieving our main objective, that is, to root out or lessen International Terrorism and secondly what price do we put on our alliances, in this case with The United States.
I believe our involvement in Afghanistan will not root out International Terrorism but I do believe it is achieving a lessening of it's effects. Therefore,on that basis we must be accepting of a some casualties though obviously not "many". With the importance of our alliance with the United States we must be accepting of more casualties, the "worth" of our involvement has increased with this added dimension.
Should we be in Afghanistan? I would answer yes. We are achieving by our involvement a lessening of International Terrorism but, as an objective on it's own, our acceptance of casualties should be low. With the fact that we are supporting our greatest ally our acceptance of number casualties should increase.
At what level should this acceptance be re-evaluated? I would say at a much higher casualty rate then we have experienced to date. Some of the higher casualty rates are, as of yesterday, US: 1610, UK: 371, Canada: 156 France: 59 Germany: 53 Denmark: 40.
We are in Afghanistan for the right reasons; to reduce the infrastructure of Terrorism, thereby lessening it's ability to harm, and to support our closest and most needed ally.
We should stay in Afghanistan for as long as the United States stays unless casualty rates become considerably higher then they are now or other factors come to play.
I do not like seeing Australia's or any countries' youth die but I think the results achieved are commensurate with the cost.
Picture courtesy of The Daily Telegraph
Monday, June 6, 2011
Mr Rocketman Off Again
Australia’s Foreign Minister and former prime minister is off overseas again, this time to Hungary.
He has only been home from Europe via China a week.
The Australian press has nicknamed him Mr Rocketman because the kilometres he has travelled would have him on the moon.
Some facts about Mr Rocketman in his eight month tenure as Foreign Minister
- Kevin Rudd racks up 384,000km in travel
- Has spent four days in every 10 overseas
- His carbon footprint amounts to 58 tonnes
If you follow this link to the article Mr Rocketman you will find a cute little animation of his sojourns.
By the way in my book he is doing a good job.
Friday, June 3, 2011
Australian Welfare System:Fear of failure Causes Unemployment
I welcome this Australian study on Australia’s Government Unemployed Welfare Scheme
The study essentially concludes that people are scared to get a job and run the risk of it not working out for whatever reason.
They therefore prefer to stay on the dole because of the inherently demeaning and totally out of proportion requirements to access this basic social security right if they need to do so if things don't go right. These are some of my thoughts on the current system.
The study essentially concludes that people are scared to get a job and run the risk of it not working out for whatever reason.
They therefore prefer to stay on the dole because of the inherently demeaning and totally out of proportion requirements to access this basic social security right if they need to do so if things don't go right. These are some of my thoughts on the current system.
- Given the structure of Australia’s welfare system the interface with authorities is incredibly demeaning, especially so, for people who find it difficult to deal with authority figures, paperwork or just issues that we take for granted.
- The processes required to access the system or more importantly in the context of this study re-access, are far out of proportion with the benefit and are a disincentive to take risk in employment searching in the first place.
- A majority of people trying to access the system, whilst many are not impoverished, they do live hand to mouth and waiting weeks for financial support is untenable thus reducing employment risk taking by getting "off the dole".
- As many are not prepared to take the risk of employment that may be uncertain they won,t, therefore decreasing the likelihood of getting employment in the future. The old saying it is easier to get a job if you have a job
- Thus a long term unemployment scenario is effected. No risk taking in job search, longer on benefits, loss of skills, less credibility with potential employers, less likelihood or desire to get a job.
As the report says fixes are cheap and easy.
I can think of one straight off the bat so to speak. If you go off security payments for a job and you lose that job for whatever reason (and don't think employers don't use vulnerable people) then you sign one piece of paper and your benefits are fully restored. You took this risk it failed (it may not have) you don't starve for a week or two and you are not put through the whole soul destroying and demeaning paperwork and interview rigmarole.
I think a lot of people will stick once they get that job. It certainly would cut administration costs for the Government.
Australian Welfare System:Fear of failure Causes Unemployment
Treasury chief talks of golden age ahead
We Are Quick To criticise....
I can not believe all the guff in the press of late in Australia screaming doom and gloom over the Australian economy.
It is funny that we recently laughed at the Doomsayers predicting the end of the earth but now when a couple of journalists claim we are heading for financial depression we all believe them.
Crikey Moses we have had one quarter of negative growth. One Quarter!
Does anybody remember we have just had some incredibly catastrophic occurrences in Australia? Hey the whole of Queensland was underwater almost at one point for crying out load.
You read things like "demand for iron ore and coal is falling off" "retail sales in decline" "Housing approvals down" "China is in economic meltdown" and hundreds of other reasons why we should beat Armageddon and get our ticket now.
Sure we had one quarter of negative growth but hey let's take all factors into considerations none less then unplanned for "Acts of God" (well unplanned by us that is).
It takes two back to back negative growth quarters to qualify for the term "Economy in recession" Even if that should occur there are recessions and there are recessions. It's not the term we need to worry about but the size of the term.
I totally agree with the Head of the Treasury when he said
The economy of a nation is cyclical by nature, as all other things in life are.
We take the good times with the bad times and in Australia we seem to do that very well.
The slang term "She'll be right mate" is what has brought us through many hard times. Times of "droughts and pouring rains" to paraphrase Dorethea Mackellar.
One quarter of negative growth given the context it has occurred in should give no=one reason to be concerned.
We are in for one of the most exciting decades, economically, that I have experienced in my five decades of life.
It is funny that we recently laughed at the Doomsayers predicting the end of the earth but now when a couple of journalists claim we are heading for financial depression we all believe them.
Crikey Moses we have had one quarter of negative growth. One Quarter!
Does anybody remember we have just had some incredibly catastrophic occurrences in Australia? Hey the whole of Queensland was underwater almost at one point for crying out load.
You read things like "demand for iron ore and coal is falling off" "retail sales in decline" "Housing approvals down" "China is in economic meltdown" and hundreds of other reasons why we should beat Armageddon and get our ticket now.
Sure we had one quarter of negative growth but hey let's take all factors into considerations none less then unplanned for "Acts of God" (well unplanned by us that is).
It takes two back to back negative growth quarters to qualify for the term "Economy in recession" Even if that should occur there are recessions and there are recessions. It's not the term we need to worry about but the size of the term.
I totally agree with the Head of the Treasury when he said
There was nothing to change its view that the March and June quarters would be weak followed by "a strong rebound with very positive growth prospects in 2011-12 and 2012-13".
The economy of a nation is cyclical by nature, as all other things in life are.
We take the good times with the bad times and in Australia we seem to do that very well.
The slang term "She'll be right mate" is what has brought us through many hard times. Times of "droughts and pouring rains" to paraphrase Dorethea Mackellar.
One quarter of negative growth given the context it has occurred in should give no=one reason to be concerned.
We are in for one of the most exciting decades, economically, that I have experienced in my five decades of life.
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